Here’s what the Fed will do — if it follows what Powell said at last year’s Jackson Hole address

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Get out your popcorn, and get your trading apps open — after months in the waiting, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is set to deliver remarks on the economic outlook at the Kansas City Fed’s Jackson Hole economic symposium. Expect him to inch up to the line, but not quite announce, that the Fed will end its bond-buying program. The delta variant has supressed progress on a number of economic indicators, ranging from airline travel to purchasing manager gauges of activity, so Powell will have reason to say, let’s wait for another month or two of data before committing to a taper. But there’s another reason why the Fed should wait — the framework that Powell himself introduced at last year’s Jackson Hole, called average inflation targeting. “We will seek to achieve inflation that averages 2% over time. Therefore, following periods when inflation has been running below 2%, appropriate monetary policy will likely aim to achiev
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